Brattleboro Reformer

By Richard Davis

The Vermont National Education Association (NEA) and the single payer organization Vermont Leads (of which I am a board member) have released the results of a survey conducted with 502 Vermonters between Jan. 14-16, by Bostonbased Kiley & Company, opinion research consultants. That survey indicates that there is broad public support for Vermont to move to create a single payer health care system.

Here are some of the key results as reported by Kiley & Company on Jan. 28.

"Most Vermonters are not initially familiar with the concept of a single payer health care system. But once they hear a brief explanation of how such a system would work, they favor single payer by a 55 percent to 43 percent majority – and the support remains above a majority level after a fuller discussion of the issue."

One of the biggest issues that will play out as a sound bite as the state moves closer to the single payer vision is the cost of the new system. The key point here is that although there will be a new tax raising a lot of money, almost all Vermonters will see an overall decrease in the amount they pay for health insurance and health care and that will offset the tax increase. If you remember nothing else as the debate heats up, keep this in mind.

Interestingly, here is what the Kiley survey found when they framed the issue "explicitly in terms of a tax increase."

"We noted that under Green Mountain Care- the name of the single-payer plan- health insurance premiums would be eliminated, and the supporters claim total spending on health care will be reduced. We also cited the claims of opponents that single-payer will ‘result in the largest tax increase in state history, which could hurt our economy, cost jobs and make it harder to recover from the recession.’" After posing the questions in those polarizing terms a majority of Vermonters continue to support single-payer at 51 percent, dropping from 55 percent. But Kiley notes that single payer remains a polarizing issue that divides voters along party lines with 80 percent of Democrats supporting single payer and 80 percent of Republicans in opposition.

They go on to explain that these numbers are actually a good thing for the move toward single payer because self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans in Vermont 50 percent to 24 percent. The report indicates that the divide will help Democrats get elected to the legislature because those polled expressed a 19 point Democratic preference for state legislature candidates in the upcoming fall election.

The move to single payer ultimately becomes a test of political will and political strength. Can politicians gather the troops and get the job done? This survey shows that the public will have their backs if they can make it happen.

There may be a clincher for politicians at the end of the Kiley poll. The pollsters note that, "At the end of the survey, after hearing messages in favor of switching to single payer, nearly three in five voters voice their support."

The pollsters go on to say that "… after discussing possible concerns about single payer – including doubts about cost and the government’s ability to run the program – we offered several arguments in favor of the concept. Again, we found voters motivated most strongly by the promise of universal coverage, portability, and the removal of concerns that care could be denied arbitrarily. These perceived benefits proved stronger that arguments highlighting financial advantages. In fact, voters are skeptical of claims that single- payer will save them money as individuals, or that it will collectively save Vermonters money. After considering single-payer, fully 58 percent of all respondents offered their approval."

It seems clear from this survey that Vermonters support a move to single payer because they understand that is the best way for Vermont to move forward with health care reform. The poll may also indicate that Vermonters are capable of understanding more about health care reform than reform insiders give them credit for.

One of the conclusions of Kiley & Company sums up things well from a political perspective.

"While the enactment of Green Mountain Care is a legislative fight, public opinion will be crucial to its outcome; legislators contemplating such a momentous change will need to feel and hear evidence of broad, intense support among single-payer proponents. And, our survey shows that public opinion can effectively be marshaled toward that end."
 

Richard Davis is a registered nurse and long-time health care advocate. He writes from Guilford and welcomes comments at rbdav@comcast.net.